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Weakening the European Union’s vehicle emissions standards could put up to 185,000 jobs at risk by 2035, according to a new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).
The analysis challenges the argument that easing the transition away from combustion engines would protect automotive employment. It finds that although slower electrification could temporarily preserve some engine-related jobs, it would also restrict employment growth in battery-electric vehicle production, battery manufacturing and recycling, and charging infrastructure.
The study examines three policy scenarios. Maintaining current CO₂ standards would keep employment across the assessed sectors broadly stable, at around 2% above 2025 levels by 2035. Adding industrial measures to strengthen European production could increase employment by approximately 10%, equivalent to around 320,000 additional jobs.
By contrast, delaying the standards by five years could reduce employment by up to 6%, or approximately 185,000 jobs below 2025 levels.
ICCT argues that maintaining emissions targets alongside incentives for European vehicle and battery production would offer a stronger route to industrial competitiveness and employment growth.
Why It Matters
Europe’s automotive transition is not simply a contest between combustion engines and electric vehicles. It is also a question of where future vehicles, batteries and charging systems are manufactured. The study suggests that regulatory certainty and domestic industrial investment will be important in determining where the resulting jobs are created.
